There is an analogy I often use for Turkish agriculture: agriculture is the largest open-air factory. This factory has no roof; its ceiling is the sky, its shifts are determined by the seasons, and its most critical input comes from a bucket of water or a cluster of clouds. Now imagine this: the sky is warming, those clouds no longer pass over the Mediterranean as they once did, and the shifts are becoming disrupted. That is why climate change is not “a problem that may occur in the future”; it is already a challenge affecting today’s operations.

Together with my team, we prepared the report “Climate Change and Sustainability in Agriculture in Türkiye” for the Turkish Food and Drink Industry Association Federation (TGDF). Using the most recent and comprehensive climate projections from the Turkish Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs, we analyzed what may happen in 25 river basins and 30 agricultural basins through three future periods (2015–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2100).

In this article, I will explain the report’s most important findings—not in the language of a meteorological engineer, but in the language of a neighboring farmer, a food manufacturer, and a family dining table.

The IPCC reports repeatedly emphasize one fact: the Mediterranean Basin is one of the three regions in the world that will be affected most rapidly and most severely by climate change. And Türkiye lies right at the center of this basin.

Under the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5):

• Türkiye’s annual average temperature could rise by 4–6°C.
• Summer temperatures in Southeastern Anatolia, the Mediterranean, and the Aegean regions could be 4–7°C higher by 2100.
• Heatwaves will spread from south to north; after 2041, Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia will have to adapt to more frequent and more intense heatwaves.
• Total precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 250–300 mm almost everywhere except the Eastern Black Sea region.
• Per capita available water resources may fall to approximately 1,100 m³ per year, a level considered severe water stress. For reference, countries with less than 1,000 m³ per person are classified as “water-poor.”

In other words, Türkiye will not be the same country 25–75 years from now. Climatically speaking, tomorrow’s Karaman may resemble today’s Konya, and tomorrow’s Çukurova may experience conditions similar to those currently found in Syria.

We must redraw our agricultural map.

Perhaps the most striking section of the report concerns the Konya Plain, Türkiye’s grain basket. According to projections by the Turkish State Hydraulic Works and the General Directorate of Water Management, Konya’s annual precipitation, currently around 320 mm per square meter, could decline to approximately 250 mm. We are already talking about a region that receives only half of Türkiye’s average annual rainfall of 643 mm.

What do these numbers mean at the farm level?

• The most critical stages for wheat are stem elongation and grain filling, which occur between mid-March and mid-May. Reduced rainfall during this period means empty grain heads and lower yields.
• Studies show that every 1°C increase above the optimal temperature can reduce spring wheat yields by approximately 5.7 kilograms per decare. Total yield losses in developing countries are expected to reach 20–30%.
• If irrigation is managed sustainably, Konya does not have to become a desert like Karapınar. However, groundwater reserves beneath the Konya Plain are already under severe stress, and nature does not readily replenish every cubic meter extracted from the aquifer.

Konya is a warning. If Konya can no longer produce wheat the way it does today, Türkiye’s bread prices will not remain what they are today either.

Corn is a critical crop for animal feed, human consumption, and bioethanol production. Major production areas in Türkiye include Adana, Şanlıurfa, Mardin, Konya, Manisa, and Diyarbakır.

Corn’s highest water demand occurs during June, July, and August—the very months when Türkiye experiences its hottest conditions.

Şen (2009) projected that restricting irrigation water in Çukurova could reduce yields by 58% for first-crop corn and 43% for second-crop corn. Yet there is another important point: when temperatures exceed 38°C, even irrigated corn struggles because its roots cannot compensate for water lost through transpiration. Beyond a certain temperature threshold, irrigation alone is no longer enough.

Climate change suggests that the Eastern Mediterranean Basin will be among the regions most severely affected. July and August, the most critical months for Çukurova, are expected to become both hotter and drier.

The solution is not simply to “apply more water.” Instead:

• Shift planting dates earlier. Some studies show that advancing planting by 14–21 days significantly reduces yield losses.
• Make drip irrigation the standard for grain corn production. (The Turkish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry already has this as a condition in the water-scarce basins, yet it’s a must to make this practice more common.)

Develop heat-tolerant varieties, adopt double-cropping systems, and consider regional shifts in production where necessary.

Sugar beet is grown primarily in Central Anatolia, particularly in provinces such as Konya, Eskişehir, Afyonkarahisar, and Yozgat. The crop prefers cool nights and does not thrive under extremely hot summer conditions. Farmers sometimes apply up to 2,000 mm of irrigation water, even though the crop’s actual requirement is only around 700–800 mm. Water waste, diseases (cercospora, fusarium), and increasing soil salinity are all intensifying the climate-related challenges facing sugar beet production. After 2040, the rate at which water deficits worsen in sugar beet regions is expected to slow. This does not mean conditions will improve; it simply means deterioration will continue at a slower pace.

Sunflower, meanwhile, is Türkiye’s leading oilseed crop. Major producing provinces include Tekirdağ, Edirne, Kırklareli, Konya, Adana, and Çorum.

Sunflowers perform best at daytime temperatures of 21–26°C with adequate sunlight. Once temperatures exceed 35°C, negative impacts become significant.

Research indicates:

• A 1°C temperature increase → approximately 15% yield loss
• A 2°C temperature increase → approximately 25% yield loss
• Overall agricultural productivity in Türkiye could decline by 15–25% (Cline, 2007).

The prescription remains familiar: earlier planting dates, drought-resistant varieties, and matching the right crop with the right location.

There is a saying: “The meat issue is really a grass issue.” A large share of Türkiye’s alfalfa production comes from provinces such as Van, Ağrı, Muş, Bitlis, Erzurum, Sivas, and Konya. Producing one kilogram of alfalfa dry matter requires 560–830 kilograms of water. As climate change increases water deficits in alfalfa-growing regions after 2040, feed costs will rise, driving increases in meat and dairy prices.

Grazing sheep, goats, and cattle are not as resilient to rising temperatures as many assume. Ruminants are particularly vulnerable to heat stress. Climate change begins in the field, continues in the barn, and ends in the kitchen.

Climate change does not simply mean “hotter and drier.” It also means more unpredictable conditions. The report highlights several extreme events that are increasingly affecting Turkish agriculture:

Late and early frosts: As winters become milder, plant development occurs earlier. A late autumn frost or an early spring frost can cause losses of up to 95% in crops such as hazelnuts and apricots.

Hailstorms: Hail can eliminate the market value of peaches and cause cracking in cherries. More frequent spring convection storms are increasing this risk.

Heatwave–flood combinations: Dry soils cannot absorb sudden heavy rainfall, resulting in runoff and flooding that damages farmland.

Changing disease and pest geography: Diseases previously unseen in Central Anatolia are now appearing. For example, Septoria leaf blotch has become more common in wheat, while the spread of broomrape parasites has altered sunflower production patterns.

High temperatures during flowering and grain-filling stages: Significant yield losses occur during these sensitive periods.

Earlier frost dates: Vineyards and orchards face increasing risks.

Soil salinization: Excessive and uncontrolled irrigation, particularly in regions such as Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), accelerates salinity problems.

To farmers, food manufacturers, and policymakers, I offer the following distilled recommendations from the report:

a) Adopt Basin-Based Planning

Türkiye does not have a single climate. What works in Konya will not necessarily work in Trabzon, and what works in Aydın may fail in Erzurum. Agricultural basins should be reassessed according to future climate conditions, and crop patterns should be tailored accordingly.

b) Learn to Think About Water in Three Colors

• Green water: rainfall stored in the soil
• Blue water: surface and groundwater resources
• Grey water: treated and recycled wastewater

Dependence on blue water must be reduced, while treated wastewater should be utilized more effectively in agriculture. The practice of using of treated water in irrigation should gain momentum legally and technically.

c) Make Rainwater Harvesting a Standard Practice

Rainwater collected from roofs, slopes, and greenhouses is invaluable for small-scale irrigation.

d) Expand Drip Irrigation

Modern irrigation infrastructure, land consolidation, and renewable-energy-powered irrigation systems are essential pillars of climate adaptation.

e) Promote Breeding and Drought-Tolerant Local Varieties

Drought-resistant wheat varieties such as Eraybey and Bozkır, developed at the Bahri Dağdaş International Agricultural Research Institute in Konya, are highly valuable. These varieties should be expanded, and local gene banks should be established.

Strategic crops such as safflower, which can grow with only 300–350 mm of annual rainfall, deserve greater attention.

f) Update Agricultural Insurance Systems

The inclusion of drought risks in Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSİM) insurance coverage is a positive step. This effort should be expanded and accelerated.

g) Adjust Planting Dates and Fertilizer Use

Planting schedules and fertilizer application rates should be revised according to new climate realities. This is one of the fastest and most cost-effective adaptation measures available.

Additional priorities include climate-friendly crop breeding, irrigation efficiency, and drought-escape strategies.

The United Nations Food Security and Nutrition Report reveals that global hunger has been rising again since 2016, with approximately 815 million people going hungry. To feed the global population in 2050, food production must increase by at least 50%. At the same time, climate change is expected to reduce agricultural productivity in Türkiye by 15–25%.

These two trends are moving in opposite directions. Because hunger and climate change intersect on the same map, this is not merely an issue for farmers, meteorologists, or food manufacturers. It is everyone’s concern.

For years we have repeated the same message: we cannot afford to pursue environmentally destructive growth today and attempt to clean up the damage later. Climate change is not a future scenario. It is already a reality in Konya, Çukurova, Thrace, Iğdır, and across Türkiye.

My message to Turkish agriculture is clear: A National Agricultural Climate Change Emergency Action Plan should be prepared and implemented without delay. This plan must be basin-based, multidisciplinary, science-driven, and built on structural reforms. Instead of temporary and reactive measures, we need a determined roadmap with short-, medium-, and long-term objectives that can be measured and evaluated.

We may not be able to stop the climate from changing, but we can protect our agriculture. To do so, we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously launching a comprehensive, intelligent, and equitable adaptation effort. Not tomorrow. Today.

Wishing for healthy soils, abundant tables, and prosperous harvests.

This article is adapted from the report “Climate Change and Sustainability in Agriculture in Türkiye,” prepared for TGDF by Prof. Dr. Mikdat Kadıoğlu, Prof. Dr. Yurdanur Ünal, Meteorological Engineer Aslı İlhan, and Senior Meteorological Engineer Cemre Yürük. Click here to download the report: https://www.tgdf.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/iklim-degisikligi-rapor-elma.compressed.pdf