The Future of Food Supply in the Middle East

Resilience, Transformation, and Preparing for a New Era

For many years, food supply in the Middle East has been shaped not only by agricultural production capacity, but also by the continuity of external trade, logistics infrastructure, energy costs and water management. Despite a growing population and strong food demand, the region remains highly dependent on external supply for many staple products due to limited water resources, harsh climate conditions and restricted arable land. FAO identifies the Near East and North Africa as one of the most import-dependent regions in the world for agrifood products, and also projects that the region’s net food imports will continue to rise in the years ahead. (Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033)

The region’s traditional balance: continuity of supply matters as much as production

To understand the food system in the Middle East, it is necessary to look at its traditional balance. For a long time, food security in the region was managed not only through increasing domestic production, but also through securing imports, keeping ports operational, maintaining storage capacity and diversifying supply sources. The main reason is that, because of its natural resource constraints, the region is not well suited to a self-sufficiency model across all product categories. Imports of cereals, feed inputs and several basic food commodities have become not simply an economic choice, but a structural necessity. According to FAO, food security in the region is now treated not only as an agricultural policy issue, but as a strategic public policy priority. (Source: Strengthening agrifood supply chains in the Near East and North Africa)

At the center of this structure lies water. FAO’s regional water scarcity initiative describes the Near East and North Africa as the most water-insecure region in the world. In the organization’s recent regional publications, climate variability, water scarcity, land degradation and drought are all highlighted as major pressures accumulating across food systems. FAO assessments published in 2026 also emphasize that, in many countries across the region, annual renewable water availability per capita has fallen below critical thresholds, directly affecting agricultural production planning. (Source: The Regional Initiative on Water Scarcity for the Near East and North Africa)

A notable shift in recent years: the search for state-backed resilience

At the same time, an important transformation has been taking place across the region in recent years. An approach once focused mainly on supply security and import continuity is now moving toward improving the quality of domestic production, using water more efficiently and making agrifood systems more resilient. Particularly in Gulf countries, food security is now being addressed within a broader framework that includes strategic reserves, modern greenhouse systems, controlled-environment agriculture and logistics hubs. FAO notes that food security has become a central policy issue in the region, as population growth, resource constraints, high import dependency and global market shocks are pushing governments toward more systematic solutions.

The UAE’s National Food Security Strategy 2051 is one of the clearest examples of this shift. The official strategy brings together sustainable production, modern technologies, resource efficiency, supply diversification and crisis preparedness under a single framework. This approach treats food security not only as a matter of access to products, but also as an issue of technology, innovation and system design. 

A similar direction can be seen in Saudi Arabia. The country’s National Water Strategy 2030 identifies the protection of water resources, demand management, improved efficiency and the more rational use of water in agriculture as core priorities. The strategy acknowledges that current consumption patterns, particularly in agriculture and urban use, are not sustainable and places greater emphasis on smarter water management. This directly affects agricultural production models, making controlled agriculture, precision irrigation, reuse and efficiency-focused solutions increasingly critical.

In recent years, growing uncertainty and geopolitical tensions across the region have made this already fragile system subject to much closer scrutiny. The issue is not simply the risk of temporary disruptions in supply. More importantly, it has become clear once again how many interconnected variables food systems depend on. Any disruption in ports, maritime shipping, insurance costs, energy prices or fertilizer flows creates direct cost and access pressures for markets that rely heavily on imports. The World Food Programme has clearly shown that recent developments in the region have pushed up food, fuel and fertilizer prices, while disruptions in sea routes and port operations have increased transit times and costs.

FAO’s 2026 assessment similarly notes that the latest crisis in the Middle East could have implications not only for the region but also for global agrifood systems, particularly by creating new pressures on fertilizer, energy and logistics costs in import-dependent economies. For this reason, the current situation should not be read merely as a short-term fluctuation, but as a structural warning that highlights which parts of the system need to become more resilient.

Even where global food markets show relative signs of recovery, geopolitical tensions, drought risks and production pressures continue to deepen import dependency across the Near East and North Africa. During the same period, FAO also reported that droughts in the region have become more frequent, longer-lasting and more severe over the last twenty years, leaving heavy impacts on rainfed production, grazing land and rural livelihoods.

Preparing for a new era: not just supply, but system design

Looking ahead, the most important question for the region is not simply how supply will return, but which model will prove more resilient. Current conditions do not point to a future that can be secured only through more imports or more domestic production. A more likely direction is the strengthening of a multi-layered resilience model. This includes diversifying supply sources, expanding strategic storage, improving cold chain infrastructure, investing in controlled-environment agriculture, advancing precision irrigation, increasing water efficiency, making better use of agricultural data and strengthening public-private partnerships. Official strategies and the publications of regional institutions point consistently to these priorities.

Controlled agriculture and greenhouse investments stand out within this new framework. Expanding production capacity in the region often depends less on increasing open-field cultivation and more on developing more controlled models that can adapt to limited water availability and difficult climate conditions. In the same way, irrigation technologies, fertigation, salinity management, storage and traceability systems are gaining importance not only from an efficiency perspective, but also in terms of food security and continuity of supply. This trend suggests that agricultural technologies will play an even more prominent role in the region’s future.

Conclusion: a more cautious, but better prepared period

The future of food supply in the Middle East can no longer be explained solely through supply and demand dynamics. As the region enters a period shaped simultaneously by water scarcity, climate pressure, external dependency and increasing geopolitical uncertainty, public policy is also becoming more focused on resilience. State-backed food security and water management programs introduced in recent years show that this new phase is not incidental, but a structural necessity. In the years ahead, the real priority will not simply be to protect supply chains, but to build a smarter, more efficient and more resilient agrifood system.

For this reason, the transformation taking place across the region needs to be understood not only through today’s pressures, but also through the needs that are beginning to take shape for the future. Controlled agriculture, greenhouse technologies, irrigation efficiency, continuity of supply, logistics infrastructure and food security-oriented solutions are all likely to take on a more central role in the regional agrifood agenda in the coming years.

Transformation in agrifood systems is rarely driven by investment alone; it accelerates through the right flow of knowledge, access to technology and the capacity for collaboration. Especially at times when priorities are being redefined at a regional level, sector platforms can help this process mature more quickly. In this context, Growtech Middle East is positioned not only as a meeting point for the industry, but also as an enabling platform that can help accelerate the transition toward a more efficient, more resilient and better prepared agrifood system.